Stocking Up for Ulduar?

Stocking Up for Ulduar?

piggy-bank

Do you find that you have time on your hands lately? Have you been checking on the Ulduar news every hour from work?

If you have extra time in the game, there are things you can do to prepare for the release of 3.1. Stockpiling a few little goodies can distract you from the suspense and even–potentially–improve your raid performance when 3.1 does hit. In addition, I know from experience that prices on many commodities change–in one direction or another–whenever a patch alters their relative value.

As a caveat, though, I’ll tell you that I am directing most of my efforts toward stockpiling just one thing–gold. I’m making as much as I can right now off the sales of flasks, herbs, ore, and bars. Gold is the ultimate stackable quantity, and I don’t have the bank space for some of the other goodies I’ll mention here. As an added plus, gold will let you buy what you need when you need it–quickly. However, there is a potential to make more on some of your auctions if you can wait a bit. I’m no WoW market expert, but based on the information we have about 3.1, here are some of the things whose values stand to change at the release of the patch.

The Winners

The following things, by my best guess, stand to rise in price after the patch. New recipes and profession changes along with an influx of new gear will make some things more coveted than they are now. In addition, everyone’s consumables bill will skyrocket as guilds take on new and challenging encounters.

Titansteel bars
Saronite ore and bars
Blue-quality gems
Arctic furs
Heavy Borean leather
Frostweave cloth
Flasks
Buff food
Potions (Health, Mana, Speed, Indestcructible)
Uncooked meat
Glyphs
Enchanting materials

The Losers

These things will experience some change at the patch. I would expect their price to go down, either a little, in the case of fish (as more people will be driven to fish their own with shorter cast times and the chance at a mount) or a lot, in the case of BoE epics. Many of these items, like Je’Tze’s Bell and the Greatness trinket, will go from being an enormously high-priced item (8,000-12,000g on some servers), to merely outrageously priced (5000 or less). A former best-in-slot will never be as coveted as a true best-in-slot, and I have every expectation that some Ulduar trinket will dethrone these two.

Herbs (nodes will soon yield more flowers per gather)
Raw fish
Nobles cards
Je’Tze’s Bell
BoE Naxx epics
BoE crafted epics–item level 200

So, long story short? Sell your Nobles card now, and buy your Bell later. As for me, the only thing I’m stocking is a few flasks. My guess is that the Flask of Pure Mojo will overtake the Flask of the Frost Wyrm for healers, and I have some that I made for cheap ready for the new market. A further word to those in the Inscription business: I suggest researching commonly-used glyphs now and preparing several stacks for sale at the release of 3.1. Competition will be high among scribes, so prices might not be as astronomical as you think, but the business will dry up quickly as people pick up their second spec. You’ll no longer have repeat business from frequent spec-switchers.

Did anyone see anything I’ve missed? I’d love to see your financial predictions for 3.1.

Error, no group ID set! Check your syntax!

Comments

  1. I agree that there will be an initial run on Glyphs but I think, long term, that they’ll be the biggest losers of them all. At least now, with one spec available, people need to constantly buy glyphs as they switch back and forth. With dual specs coming, after they make their initial purchase, they’ll probably never buy new glyphs again.

    Nances last blog post..Death Knight Addons

  2. I don’t think Glyphs should be in your “Winners” list. There will be a feeding frenzy for a few days as everyone and their mother dual specs, and then demand will dry up as the market is effectively cut in half. (Glyphs are primarily sold to alts and respecs as far as I can tell…. and the second half of that will no longer need them.)

    I also think that elixirs will see a bit of a bump in sales – while flasking is simple and cost effective, it’s often not optimal for progression raiding. Elixirs have far more variety, and allow you to customize your buffs for a specific encounter. As a rule I flask for farm stuff, and use elixirs for progression (unless we’re stuck on an encounter where the flask is the right choice anyways).

    Karthiss last blog post..When not in Azeroth….

  3. MINOR glyphs are the ones where you can make bank in 3.1.

    People who respec constantly stockpile the glyphs they swap in and out all the time as is. They’ll probably have 3 of their mose used offspec glyphs ready to go for patch day.

    They probably won’t however, have duplicates of the 3 minor glyphs that they set and forget so many months ago. Those are the moneymaker here.

    Feists last blog post..FeistTheRogue: @stoneybaby With only trinkets/rings/neck/cape/weapon shield, as a JC, you should be able to get close to 500 Defense… Tempting…

  4. The other reason I wouldn’t call glyphs ‘winners’ is that there are something like 50 new glyphs to be added in 3.1. That means that many current glyphs are going to be worth a lot less than today.

    I think herbs are unlikely to drop that much either, though this is just a guess. The increase in drop rates is going to be at least partially balanced by raiders who now need flasks and/or elixirs. Today I just don’t see many players using them, but I would guess Ulduar will change that. The new glyphs will also drive some herb use.

    Alameins last blog post..3.1 Professions: The value of spoilers

  5. Good post. However I would point out that if Flasks and Glyphs are winners, the herbs cannot be losers, since herbs are the mats of the previous.

    My guess: Flasks, Glyphs and herbs will skyrocket in the first week of 3.1, than start to decline as people have their second glyphs and the increased herb production push down the prices.

  6. I’d add Borean Man O’War to the winner list. Right now it’s worthless, but after the patch it can be used to make Black Jelly, which will help to recover health and mana faster than any other food or drink in the game. With the mana regen changes, this may become a very popular item indeed. =)

    SyllySylls last blog post..Comment on Med School: healing resto at levels 1-80 by admin

  7. @SyllySyll: I assumed the same thing. But when I checked the AH last night, it looks like Borean Man O’War are selling for around 4g each. Wha? Not sure why; there are several listed as singles and a couple small stacks, but nothing in bulk.

    Alameins last blog post..3.1 Professions: The value of spoilers

  8. The reason I put herbs in “losers” is twofold:

    1. Increase in drop rate. This could be small, or it could be big, but it always has an impact when there’s a change like this.

    2. Most herbs right now are sold to people making Nobles cards, not flasks. Cards are going to be a huuuge loser. I’m guessing we’ll have more herbs on the market and less people buying 300 at once. Instead, people will buy for alchemy–which means 40 or so of each things at once.

  9. On the elixir question: even in the days of Sunwell, when the elixirs were miles better than the flasks, they were hard to sell on the AH. People love the 2h, persist through death feature of the flask.

    Right now, I can’t even sell an elixir at cost. During Sunwell, I could have sold them for a tiny margin. Flasks were still the order of the day, though. The only non-flask alchemy product I used to be able to sell were Ironshield potions. I bet I can sell the equivalent post 3.1, along with the Haste pot.

  10. If elixirs get buffed (it used to be 2 elixirs were slightly better than 1 flask, but it doesn’t seem that way anymore), they’ll be winners in 3.1.

    If you really want to get a jump on money-making, once 3.1 starts looking to be in “any week now” status, start selling crafting materials. By that point the serious crafters will be stockpiling and raring to go, which means demand will be huge and they’ll be trying to grab everything they can before the patch hits. That should run prices up, and you’ll be in the market already starting to make money before the main wave hits.

    Selling in bulk may be useful too if you start selling early. Some of the more hard-core guilds may grab a bunch of raw materials with guild bank funds to distribute to their crafters to go ahead and get geared up as soon as the new recipes are live. Why buy 1 blue gem at 20 gold if you can get 3 for 45 gold?

  11. Some of the Hunters in Conquest go on fishing trips from time to time to keep a guild bank tab filled with mats for Fish Feasts.

    Not necessarily for economic reasons, but rather to ensure we have lots of feasts for weeks filled with progression nights. When 3.1 hits, we’ll have less time for farming, and much higher consumption of the feasts as we learn new difficult encounters. Shorter cast time will be nice, but it won’t be for a while that we get to enjoy it, due to all the new content to devour.

    Amavas last blog post..Oh noes, the blog

  12. We have been stocking for quite some time. Every raider has 10+ of their choice flask in addition to the huge stock in the GBank. With 400+ fish feasts, we’re rearing to go! Can’t wait.

    Winner:
    Orb of Deception! Ok, only because I have one laying around.

  13. Glyphs will be good for the first couple days, but will go back to the level that they are now.

    Flasks will probably go down in price if herbs have an increased drop list.

    wowconomicss last blog post..Crusader Enchant

Speak Your Mind

*